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Risk Management Strategies
These are some of the strategies that are mentioned in William J. O'Neil's
book, How to Make Money in Stocks.
It makes sense to have a DEFENSIVE plan to go along with your purchasing
strategy. Always try to learn from your past mistakes, and use these
suggestions as a guideline.
The
Red Dress Story!
This is a favorite of O'Neil's examples
on how to invest in the stock market
just like you would run a business. For
a minute, let's suppose you own a small
retail women's clothing store. You have
bought and stocked women's dresses in
three colors-
yellow, green and red. The red
dresses are quickly sold out, the green
ones are half sold, and none of the
yellow dresses have sold. What are you
going to do?
Do you go to your buyer and say, "The
red dresses have sold out. The yellow
ones don't seem to have any demand, but
I still think they're good and besides,
yellow is my favorite color, so let's
buy some more of them anyway"?
No! The clever merchandiser who survives
in the retail business eyes his
predicament objectively and says, "We
sure made a mistake. We'd better
eliminate the yellow dresses. Mark them
down 10%. Let's have a sale. If they
don't sell at that price, mark them down
20%. Get our money out of those "old
dogs" and put in more of the hot-moving
red dresses that are in demand." This is
common sense in a retail business. Do
you do this with your investments? Why
not? Do you have any specific selling
rules, or are you just flying blindly?
The
7% - 8% Rule!
Seriously consider adopting a firm plan
to limit the loss on each stock you buy
to a maximum of 7% - 8%. Once you are
down to that point you should no longer
hesitate. You don't need any other
reasons, because the simple fact that
you are down 7% - 8% is all the reason
you need.
This is kind of like insurance. You sell
to make sure you don't suffer a
catastrophic loss. Granted, there will
be times when the stock you sell will
turn around and immediately go up. You
will probably get very perturbed and
think you made the wrong decision if the
stock rebounds.
Suppose you bought fire insurance on
your house last year. Just because it
didn't burn down, are you upset because
you made a bad financial decision? Fact
is, you don't buy fire insurance because
you know your house is going to burn
down. You buy insurance just in case, to
protect you from the remote possibility
of a very serious loss.
Some people have even damaged their
health agonizing over declining stocks
they were holding. It is best to sell
and stop the worrying. You have to
accomplish a very critical objective of
keeping your losses small, even if a
number of the stocks move up after you
sell them. Letting your losses run is
the most serious mistake made by almost
all investors! If you aren't willing to
cut short and take your losses, you
probably should not buy stocks. Would
you drive a car down the street without
brakes? Probably not!
Average Down???
Investors are always hoping rather than
being realistic. Everyone loves to buy
stocks; no one loves to sell stocks. As
long as you hold a stock you have hope
that it might go up enough for you to
get back even. Once you sell, you
abandon all hope and accept the cold
reality of defeat. You can't afford to
have a love affair with any stock.
A great trader once said, "There are
only two emotions in the market - hope
and fear. The problem is we hope when we
should fear and we fear when we should
hope."
Averaging down is usually not an
effective strategy for making money in
the stock market. The fact is, in most
cases, you should already be out of the
stock before you ever even reach the
point where you're considering averaging
down your cost. Wouldn't it make more
sense to buy a stock that is strongly
performing in the market, rather than
more of one that has broken down?
Usually when a stock has dropped in
price there is what is referred to as
"overhead supply" or, in other words,
there are a group of people who bought
it higher and many of them are now
looking to get out of it. These people
view the stock as a "dog" and are
anxious to sell each time it gets back
up to around the price they got into it.
It is only after the stock breaks
through the overhead supply (resistance)
that it is likely to have a dramatic
rise in price.
Plenty of people still will insist that
averaging down is a smart thing to do.
You might want to be prepared for a long
wait, especially if the company has had
a disappointing earnings report, which
is often the case when stocks have
fallen off sharply.
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