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MORNING MARKET COMMENTARY
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Monday, September 08, 2008
Stocks Halt Slide After a Damaging Week of Losses
by Adam Sarhan, Registered Representative and Vice President of Investments with Source Capital Group (Member FINRA,SIPC)
Many investors were happy when Friday's closing bell rang because it officially ended a tough holiday-shortened week for Wall Street. The weakness sent the major averages diving below their respective 50 DMA lines and effectively ended their latest rally effort, putting them back in a correction. Decliners were about even with advancers on the NYSE but led by a 15-to-13 ratio on the Nasdaq exchange. There were only 2 high-ranked companies from the CANSLIM.net Leaders List that made new 52-week highs and appeared on the CANSLIM.net BreakOuts Page; lower than the 4 issues that appeared on the prior session. Stocks making new 52-week lows solidly outnumbered stocks making new 52-week highs on both major exchanges, which was not an encouraging sign.
Charts courtesy www.stockcharts.com

This was an eventful week on Wall Street. On Tuesday, the Nasdaq Composite negatively reversed after slamming into resistance at its 200-day moving average (DMA) line. The very next day, all of the major averages sliced below their respective 50 DMA lines which had acted as support in recent weeks. Oil prices plummeted to a five-month low after facilities in and around the Gulf of Mexico managed to dodge Hurricane Gustav. Energy and other commodity markets came under pressure due to a sharp advance in the US dollar.
Last month, the US dollar enjoyed its largest monthly advance since October 1992! Keep in mind that there tends to be an inverse relationship between commodity prices and the greenback due to the fact that most commodities are priced in dollars. This sent a slew of commodity related stocks lower which heretofore served as leadership for the major averages. On Wednesday, stocks ended in the red after the Federal Reserve released its Beige Book. The report showed that businesses across most of the US were "slow" last month and the housing market continued to erode. Underneath the surface, there was virtually no quality leadership to speak of. Volume, an important indicator of institutional demand, increased as the market sold off, which added several distribution days to the recent count.
All this set the stage for Thursday's deleterious action. The major averages gapped down and closed below their 50 DMA lines on heavy volume which effectively ended their fledging rally. A series of tepid economic data points were released which sparked a broad based sell off in equity markets around the world. Then on Friday, stocks opened sharply lower after the Labor Department released a weaker-than-expected jobs report and said that the unemployment rate climbed to a five-year high of +6.1% in August. Payrolls slid by -84,000, and the prior two months were revised lower by -58,000. Around two hours after Friday's open, the bears ran out of steam which allowed the bulls to show up and erase the session's losses. Volume totals were lighter than the prior session as the major averages ended mixed.
The disconcerting data released all week raised the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will postpone any future interest rate hikes until 2009, which may help promote economic activity. Officially, the US economy has still not fallen into a recession but the weak data increases the chance that President George W. Bush will become the first president since Richard Nixon to oversee two recessions.
PICTURED: The benchmark S&P 500 Index positively reversed after a week-long sell off.
| Indices |
|
|
|
|
NYSE |
|
|
|
Nasdaq |
|
|
| Dow |
+32.73 |
11,220.96 |
+0.29% |
|
Volume |
5,075,229,500 |
-4% |
|
Volume |
2,270,296,000 |
-5% |
| Nasdaq |
-3.16 |
2,255.88 |
-0.14% |
|
Advancers |
1,685 |
49% |
|
Advancers |
1,285 |
44% |
| S&P 500 |
+5.48 |
1,242.31 |
+0.44% |
|
Decliners |
1,674 |
48% |
|
Decliners |
1,522 |
52% |
| Russ. 2000 |
+0.23 |
718.85 |
+0.03% |
|
52 Wk Highs |
19 |
|
|
52 Wk Highs |
28 |
|
| S&P 600 |
+0.58 |
377.45 |
+0.15% |
|
52 Wk Lows |
300 |
|
|
52 Wk Lows |
178 |
|
The Bank Index ($BKX +4.83%) and Broker/Dealer Index ($XBD +1.90%) bounced back from early losses and ended Friday's session with gains. The Semiconductor ($SOX +2.22%) and Networking ($NWX +0.84%) indexes also rebounded into positive ground while the Internet ($DOT -0.08%) and Biotechnology ($BTK +0.02%) indexes closed the session with little net change. The Retail Index ($RLX +0.58%) and the Gold & Silver Index ($XAU +0.63%) posted modest gains. Meanwhile, the Integrated Oil ($XOI -0.81%) and Oil Services ($OSX -0.47%) indexes ended modestly lower along with the Healthcare ($HMO -0.77%) group.
Charts courtesy www.stockcharts.com
PICTURED: The Bank Index ($BKX +4.83%) survived a difficult week for the broader market and ended on a strong note, making solid progress above its 50-day moving average line. Having grown accustomed to seeing the major averages slump while financial stocks have struggled for months, it seems surprising to see the BKX in such relatively "good" shape. More recently, the major averages have slumped due to weakness in the tech sector and commodity-linked areas. To a degree, the stability in financial shares may actually bode well for the broader market outlook.
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